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Monday 06 October 2014
Certain Conventional Weapons. Signed January 21, 2009: President Barack Obama’s first full day in office.
amiel, Monday 06 October 2014 - 06:26:23 // comment: 0

Certain Conventional Weapons. Signed January 21, 2009: President Barack Obama’s first full day in office. America’s ratification, however, is subject to a diplomatic reservation that says, " can disregard the treaty at its discretion if doing so would save civilian lives". The decision to use these weapons, might change the makeup of the current coalition. It would certainly eliminate having enemy troops operate with impunity; as is currently the case.

It is late nite. I have read exhaustively over the last few hours.

There are said to be over a thousand fighters in the city of Kobane. If this is the case, it is unlikely that ISIL will subdue the city without many times that number of it's own fighters being killed.

There are various traps, snipers, mortar crews, suicide assignments. The threat of airstrikes, and so on.

It ocours to me that the ISIL fighters, even the most experienced of them have never experienced the kinds of arial armaments that would typically be used against an enemy in war under these circumstances. None of them are old enough to know. Even the Chechen's. Anti-personnel bombs of various types. Probably the cheapest bomb available, have a far more devistating affect than the mk-n 's that have been used so far. There are traps, snipers, mortar crews, suicide assignments. The threat of airstrikes, and so on.

At Friday, October 10, 2014 at 4:45:00 AM UTC

It has become clear that Turkey is working on the behalf of ISIL. Here's the simple evidence that supports that:

In the words of the Turkish President, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, "... Kobani is about to fall". At the same moment in time of this remark, there are tens of thousands of capable Kurdish volunteers who have withstood physical battering by the Turkish military who prevent them from crossing the Turkish border into Kobani to assist with the defense of Kobani. While never indicating that the Turkish President 's promose to act to prevent the fall of Kobani was apparently a ruse (american slang term for 'trick') designed to convince the world that the Kurds in Kobani; while intending to actually do nothing to prevent their slaughter

The current death toll for Turkey's Kurds, demonstrating against their governments lack of military action in protecting Kurds against the ISIL asault on Kobane is 32.

Saturday 04 October 2014
Turkey. Hundreds of miles of Turkish border controlled by ISIL.
amiel, Saturday 04 October 2014 - 21:39:29 // comment: 0

The YPG are ideologically close to the PKK, '' but on an organizational level, we are completely independent''.

Hundreds of miles of the Turkish border have been controlled by ISIL for several months. Claims of Turkish support for the group ISIL are being aggresively defended against by Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogann.

The Turkish president apparently has choosen to ignore the fact that Turkish support for ISIL is very old news to the rest of the world. The digital universe is filled with testimony by video, and witness accounting of ISIL having unlimited access crossing that border.

Today, we officially begin playing the Diplomatic games of cat and mouse at the highest levels of State. We pay them to do this. None of which will ever convince enough people unless someone can describe why it is that ISIL is fighting so aggressively to control these vast contiguous areas of the Turkish border? Or is the ISIL campaign just some sort of random exercise?

At Sunday, October 5, 2014 at 5:30:00 AM UTC

I am done with this topic. I said it in the previous entry. Historically over the course of 40 years Turkey has been the most powerfull doorstop in history; apparently believing that that they can influence the worlds impressions regarding their intentions regarding ISIL and the situatiuation on the Turkish border. The world is a complex place, but above all, the days of misleading the ill informed are way behind us. No one is ill informed anymore (unless you are a fox news fan).

I have no doubt that great minds within Turkey envision a scenerio where ISIL will morph into some form of acceptable entity that will someday be the pride of Turkish visionaries... there are not enough years left on the human calendar.

So it's done.

Incidently, we are aware that there were already substantial numbers of FSA fighters in Ayn ... Kobane for a few days now. Turkey did nothing to assist them.

Friday 03 October 2014
Friday, October 3, 2014 at 12:25:00 AM UTC
amiel, Friday 03 October 2014 - 00:25:45 // comment: 0

The Free Syrian Army has pushed through to the Turkish Border.

There are signs of attempts (and success) by the FSA to move towards the Turkish border. I was impressed by the verbal response , "If they want to prevent a massacre (the coalition) must act much more comprehensively...". Which is what has been being said all along; that Air Power cannot, singularly be expected to be the deciding factor in any of this.

So. What are they going to do?

Unless the Turks intend to (once again over 40 years) go down in history as the largest most powerful speed-bump in history, the FSA are accessible and can be used to relieve the fighters at Ayn-al Arab. This will set a precedent for Turkey and impress it's 13,800,215 Kurds... and the remaining 6.998 billion non-Kurds who will be watching this occur.

...making the statement that the State is bigger than it's current antagonists. That it (Turkey) is comfortable with the current arrangement to continue to work out an end it's long term conflict (which is almost done anyway, right). As a result, Turkey will have all of the bargaining pieces. All of the claims to legitimacy. All of the claims to decency. No-one will be able to argue that Turkey, through true statesmanship, has endeavored to help.

If, in the end, the other parties prove to have been unworthy of this (un-earned) humanitarian gesture, Turkey can squash them like a bug and no one will say anything.


So, Turkey deals with the FSA only... lending solid legitimacy to the organization, establishing it (perhaps for the first time) as the (underline the) authority for the anti Assad (sorry Bashar) effort, which we agree must have some grass-roots origins.

Turkey has the power, Turkey has the ball.

At Thursday, October 2, 2014 at 04:00:00 UTC

Current problem is tanks, roaming freely in Ayn-al Arab. Here is a current video explaining the situation. (click).

At Friday, October 3, 2014 at 3:25:00 AM UTC

Ayn-al Arab has not fallen (ignore the bogus liveleak video) as of this time

Monday 29 September 2014
September 28 2014
amiel, Monday 29 September 2014 - 02:53:05 // comment: 0

Can the Free Syrian Army (FSA) find a way to create a cohesive bond with Kurdish Fighters from Syria, Turkey and Iraq.

Judging by the looks of the maps, and the activity of ISIL over the course of the past weeks, there is really no other alternative for any of us.

The FSA sadly, can get get no real material and logistical support under the current circumstances as the boundaries between the FSA and groups describing ideological beliefs as justification for their existence are not distinctly separated enough. Thus the long pause on what to do.

The recent statements made that define the FSA position as being against any effort to impose 'ideological' beliefs on populations was a good step, an important step. Taking such a position puts the FSA in alignment with the wholesomeness of the Peshmerga (KRG) who state that they exist only to defend their people and their land. Wholesome middle American values.

For the FSA, armed conflict with groups that seek to impose 'ideological' beliefs on local populations is considered a wholesome ideal; putting them in sync with the People's Defense Force (YPG), and the Women's Defense Forces (YPJ). However the YPG and YPJ have fought for an array of other 'ideologies' (not just for the land) This is the sticking point. Their ideals are the reason that nothing of any substance has been done to assist these groups in their fight with the ideological extremists called ISIL in northern Syria right now (9.2014).

In that any assistance given to the YPG or YPJ may be considered to also support the PKK and PYD (the political components of the YPG and YPJ). Such assistance may be interpreted as supporting groups who have struggled 'against' the Turkish Government. See, it is kind of complex. On the surface, it would be largely up to the Turkish government to OK any plan that seeks to work with these groups; the Kurds of northern Syria and Southern Turkey.

Here's a quick primer:

The Peshmerga belong to the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) which is influenced by the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP). As the name describes 'democracy' is part of their ideology. The KPD are existing partners with the West and Turkey.These guys are geographically situated in Iraq.

The Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK), the Democratic Union Party (PYD), with the armed groups of the People's Defense Force (YPG), Women's Defense Forces (YPJ), are a little more complex. Their list of stuff under the heading of 'ideology' at the Wikipedia website include terms like: 'Kurdish Nationalism, Democratic Conferalism, Libertarian Socialism, Communializm, and the big one Feminism . Complex. These guys are geographically located in Turkey and northern Syria. And have been involved in armed conflict with Turkey for 30+ years, they are listed as terrorist organizations by the United States.

The YPG are ideologically close to the PKK, '' but on an organizational level, we are completely independent''.

End primer.

Keeping in mind that the planners of the the onslaught of ISIL in northern Syria are well aware of the relationships between the various groups. There seems to be absolutely no way that there can be an effective collaboration amongst the groups mentioned above; unless of course some influential someone thinks entirely outside of the current box. Waaay outside of that box. And then someone would need to have the means to implement whatever plan that only the most creative minds might come up with.

For example. What's in it for everybody concerned? What do the YPG, and YPJ get out of fighting (think, Peshmerga and Iraq)? Perhaps honor is enough. But in reality there are hundreds of thousands who will likely perish while these groups courageously plod forward against a well equipped army of tens of thousands of ideological extremists. The handwriting is on the wall.

... which can be avoided, provided these opponents of ISIL can recognize their awkward position; as individual groups they face the potential of significant losses, united (somehow) under a single banner they command the destiny of the world. Literally, able to defeat ISIL militarily, to extinguish the flames of their oppressive ideology locally, to reestablish livable conditions in that geographic region while simultaneously creating a more diverse environment there for years to come. Digestible? How fast can it be digested?

ISIL will consolidate in the northern tip of Syria, with no substantial threat from Turkey or Syria, with sufficient local resources available, and with porous borders to the north, ISIL can survive indefinitely.

I'm thinking STATE (or a region). whats-his-name can't maintain the current borders; can't maintain the country. Such a solution might substantially address Turkey's problems, It will address some of the looming issues in Iraq. Wide expanses of ungoverned, unfriendly areas transformed by diversity and civility. Think of it as normal growth and expansion. I think it would be interesting to observe, Regions founded, governed and run on ideologies that include terms like 'feminism'.

Substantial source for understanding the Kurdish groups and relationships can be found at this link (click).

As of Monday, September 29, 2014 at 8:45:00 PM UTC

Silent beyond the rumble in the distance.

As of Tuesday, September 30, 2014 at 4:00:00 AM UTC

There is little possibility of significant numbers of forces reaching Ayn-al Arab (Kobane) from either the East, South, or West by ground. Ayn-al Arab is surrounded on the Syrian side by ISIL forces on three sides. No airstrikes have occurred there. Retreat from Ayn-al Arab can only happen to the north where Turkey has stationed 40 tanks along the border facing Ayn-al Arab. There is no way of determining in what direction, and at what targets the tanks will fire until the guns begin firing; if they fire at all.

What is unfolding there is a potential blood bath where ISIL will overwhelm substantial numbers of YPG and YPJ fighters on the Syrian side of the border (The same group of fighters who traversed the distance across the Syrian border to reach Mount Sinjar a few seeks ago in response to the ISIL slaughter of the Yazidis). There is absolutely no reason to believe that this slaughter at Ayn-al Arab will not occur in the coming hours, based on maps and written and oral reporting from that area.

This is a tell tale moment. A Prophetic moment.

As of Tuesday, September 30, 2014 at 23:30:00 UTC

Saleh Muslim, head of the Kurdish Democratic Union Party (PYD) made mention of the Syrian National Coalition and the FSA to provide relief to Ayn-al Arab. The FSA and PYD have expressed their solidarity in the past, however in the current circumstances there is no way for the FSA to assist; there are no means to reach Ayn-al Arab from areas to the west where FSA are strong. The FSA does have access to the border through vast Kurdish controlled areas along the Turkish border to it's north and west. Coalition forces might consider picking something up by air rather than dropping something by air in the realm of solution and set an interesting precedent in the dynamics of how things progress from here. An excellent opportunity to establish how these entities can be extremely relevant in the future. Lets just see what happens.

As of Wednesday, October 1, 2014 at 7:35:00 PM UTC

Ayn-al Arab is cut completely off. ISIS terrorists well armed with weapons captured recently from the fleeing Iraqi army in Mosul in June of this year have continued the siege.

American planes have made bombing runs outside of the city slowing the ISIL advance, more is required however. ISIL continues to bring heavy weapons to bear from the surrounding region in a complete commitment to take Ayn-al Arab. Doing so will provide ISIL with control of a contiguous 200+ Kilometers of the Turkish border; through which ISIL is said to pass with no difficulty.

if Ayn-al Arab does fall; Turkey can then engage in it's previously mentioned plan for sending troops over the border along that 200 kilometer front to establish their announced 'buffer zone'. In reality unless more is done along that new 'buffer zone; it's occupants will be the same ISIL forces whom are arrayed along the current 200 kilometer border area... ISIL will have and even more permanent home in northern Syria.

Today, Iraqi Prime Minister Haidar al-Abadi has again declared that Iraq will not tolerate foreign troops on it's soil... Iranian Hezbollah are operating and training in Iraq.

As of Wednesday, October 1, 2014 at 21:10:00 UTC

There are apparently some Syrian Government troops in Qarah Halinj; less than one mile south of Ayn-al Arab. Turkish troops should probably investigate.

Friday 29 August 2014
I have too much work to do at the moment.
amiel, Friday 29 August 2014 - 05:20:25 // comment: 0

This next post may take too long. It will serve to alienate a few, but will not be completely about Nouri Kamil Mohammed Hasan al-Malikii or his blood cousin Richard Cheney. (OK, that is inflammatory, strike that).

Ok so it is a war of words.

So, who is Sheikh Qasim al-Tai? And what does he have to do with American Military forces leaving Iraq in the year 2011 (read). And why is he described as being related to Richard Cheney?

Note here: If you are a Fox News viewer, kindly take the time to forward the pdf document found at the website link above. This document describes substantively the legal case for refusing to permit American Troops to remain in Iraq. You see, it was the Iraqi's prerogative and their decision, not the American presidents prerogative or his decision. And Sheikh Qasim al-Tai had a substantive voice in these matters in 2011...

... Sheikh Qasim al-Tai may have an equally substantive voice in Iraq today, or he appears to be at least trying.

First off, some context.

At the time that ISIL crossed the Syrian border in large numbers and attacked Cities in Iraq; the response of the Iraqi government was to abandon those cities, pulling back as far as the defensible Shi`a stronghold areas, the towns and cities encircling Baghdad and areas to the South and East of Baghdad .

The reality when the ISIL forces invaded Iraq (invading cities to the north and west of Baghdad) was that the Iraqi Military were antagonists to every ethnic and religious group outside of their own Shi`a majority. Sunnis were discriminated against. It may be difficult to document, but the general theme seems to be institutionalized neglect of everyone outside of the Shi`a culture and geographically outside of Shi`a areas.

Seems that there should be an accounting that provides substantively the extent to which neglect is true or not true. It occurs to me that fundamental to any financial or material assistance, there should be an accounting (a numerical assessment) of how resources are 'spent'. And, so can Nouri Kamil Mohammed Hasan al-Maliki provide a reporting of where everything went?

He currently seeks to fill time (and the tv screen) with further influencing where things are going, a task that he had been specifically relieved of recently....since he is the only one who may know, can he perhaps busy himself with accounting for where things went and how things got the way they are? Any reasonably coherent description will suffice.

Prevailing (western) logic states that until he can, or at least until he acknowledges his responsibility to do so, he is entitled to nothing further. I have no confidence that Baghdad can show where it has been fair and objective in it's implementation of governance in it's past. And it seems silly to even pose this rhetorical idea ...

... because today there are vast swaths in Iraq where there is no governance and where there has been no governance for quite a long time, long before ISIL arrived.

So the question is. Can anyone in the Iraqi Government begin to account, and perhaps take responsibility for, squandering an entire Country worth of resources? Including, and especially perhaps the hopes and aspirations of Millions of people in Iraq and around the world?

These leaders who go to any measure to keep themselves in power, have indicated no sense of responsibility to the millions of people who's lives were entrusted to them.

Both Sheikh Qasim al-Tai and Nouri Kamil Mohammed Hasan al-Maliki should probably both just shut up at this point. I cannot think of two people who are less qualified to have anything to say as regards the welfare of Iraq or the welfare of people in Iraq, than these two. Both have a history of aggressively pursuing policies and practices that have worked against the interests of the people of Iraq. I can find in neither of their cases evidence of taking responsibility for their actions.

___ I will continue this later. I need some sleep now.

Monday 11 August 2014
Maliki acts to Secure Green Zone while not yet bothering to secure the Iraqi Border from further influx of Militants.
amiel, Monday 11 August 2014 - 04:59:39 // comment: 0

It is no wonder that John McCain's face is back in the news again...

Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki's has acted to Secure the Green Zone but has still failed to attempt to secure the Country's borders; leaving that task to others. Citing Constitutional justification for further delays in selecting a Prime Minister. Someone has neglected to mention that the Prime Minster had never moved to secure the country's borders.

Have a quick look at this image which shows fortifications along the Iraq border with Syria, around 47 Miles west of the town of Sinjar, which lay at the foot of Sinjar Mountain. The dark yellow line is the Syria/Iraq border. The circled fortifications are placed all along that border. I am aware that there are some limits with the maps that I am using, but I suspect that in reality the map shows sufficiently what actually exists. Nothing.

There have been no reports in the Media anywhere of Iraqi Troops engaging in Battle with ISIS forces along the border; because there are no Iraqi troops there to engage in battle.

There are however Iraqi troops surrounding the Green Zone (which is nowhere near Mosul Dam by the way) in an apparent maneuver designed to counter an opponents maneuver. Apparently the prize for at least one of the opponents is a soft cushioned chair in his office; security of borders has thus far not been brought to the discussion. John McCain gets very, very emotional about this kind of thing, he's back in the news.

There is absolutely no shred of legitimacy remaining in denying the Kurdish Government the greatest of consideration in the various areas necessary for them to preserver and to prosper in the face of what they have been burdened with under the governance of Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki.

Wednesday 06 August 2014
American Media sucks once again.
amiel, Wednesday 06 August 2014 - 03:45:08 // comment: 0

Please refer to the previous post for additional context on the following.

The ISW Publishes near daily updates to graphic reports describing the 'situation' in Iraq. I just had a flash on the current situation... it is difficult to track down locations using maps of places with somewhat cryptic names. I am therefore breaking out the big guns.

Google Earth.

There is information coming NOT from American media that describes major operations in an Iraq area called Ninewa (nineva). This includes the areas where some 40,000 residents of Ninewa fled into the mountains nearby and are living with extremely life threatening conditions. Without water. It is reported that Sixty (60) children have died there due to the lack of water.

It is very odd, because when viewed from above using Google Earth the indispensable utility of logistical air support kind of screams out at you. There are numerous small settlements, one or two of which I cannot name which probably have no military significance except that they can provide good cover and shelter, and temporary bases from which to launch attacks on close-by towns. Including Sinjar at the foot of Sinjar Mountain where the Peshmerga and PKK and YPG arrived in force on Monday Aug 4 in response to general orders to 'move to an offensive posture'. Sinjar is around 33 km from the Syrian border areas that the PKK, YPG and Peshmerga had no trouble re-securing in generally the east-north-east areas a few days ago.

As of Thursday August 7, 2014 12:03:51 AM GMT

PKK have taken charge of operation in the Sinjar area (previously incorrectly stated YPG).

Rab'iah border crossing is seeing significant ISIL action.

Mosul is now already described as largely controlled by the the Peshmerga while there are media reports of military action in Kurdish territory some 30 km. from Erbil., west of Mosul.

As of Friday, August 8, 2014 at 4:20:00 AM AST

Colors changed from white to black and a deathly calm is all about.

Tuesday 05 August 2014
Peshmerga - Kurdish forces get U.S. Support... finally.
amiel, Tuesday 05 August 2014 - 04:40:27 // comment: 0

Today is August 4, 2014

I have six maps that I refer to when reading the news reports on the events in Iraq and nearby areas.

All of United States domestic news is carrying reports of Peshmerga defeats at the Mosal Dam, Zumar, Shengal, and so on... during this same time 'alternative' news sources describe that the Peshmerga have re-supplied, re-enforced (which very importantly has included linking up with elements of the Syrian Kurdish Peoples Protection Units, the YPG, who rushed to the area), and have launched very large scale attacks on these areas where ISIS executed lightning attacks hours before...


With a thunderous din so loud that it woke a slumbering President 6,100 miles away (10,056 km), the President awoke, sat up in bed and said out loud, "O.K. enough!". The United States will be supplying Air Support to the Peshmerga...

...additionally, the United States will supply the occasional incidental weapon or two that may be needed in certain military situations and the technical support that may be required as well.

One last thing.

According to my map, ISIS as a whole is currently more or less surrounded in a very large pattern; suggesting over-extension and resulting supply challenges. Fragmented disconnected groups that were (or are) their strength while on the offensive, become predictable and difficult to successfully defend - as their efforts turn more to maintenance of adequate provisions.

Control of populated areas where resources like food water and ammunition are available are required. Further, populated areas provide the 'camouflage' required for them to survive.


So great. So, now perhaps I can put these maps away.

[ Read the rest ... ]

Friday 21 March 2014
Listening to President Putin
amiel, Friday 21 March 2014 - 08:53:39 // comment: 0

Listening to what President Putin has to say about it all.

I am quite convinced that there will be no war. I am also convinced that the sooner the West allows things to calm down the sooner normalcy can return to that area of the world.

I will have to replay the tape wherein President Putin describes the various events leading up to the actions of Russia in Ukraine.

I have the impression that President Putin has good intentions, has a difficult job and has the ability to positively affect an outcome in Ukraine and is working to do so.

American media propaganda is as bad as any that exists.

There, I said it.

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